Twins–Braves totals: Hard Rock overpricing by 2.7% versus sharp consensus, 23 hours from first pitch
What happened: Final score: 4–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.15 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.7% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 22.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—23 hours before Minnesota Twins face Atlanta Braves in MLB—Hard Rock has quoted decimal odds of 2.15 on the totals market, a level sitting 2.7% above the consensus fair value assembled by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is live and accessible as of writing, not post-game analysis.
That quote deviates 2.6 standard deviations from the cluster where competing bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical separation well beyond routine market churn.
The consensus fair value draws from 22 independent sharp sources, grounding the benchmark in distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.
This signal aligns with a historically profitable pattern in our archive. Across 766 settled bets in baseball totals signals at mid-range odds, comparable mispricings have compounded to +4.8% cumulative ROI, establishing precedent for how similar gaps have resolved.
Dislocations of this size do not linger to first pitch. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within approximately 20 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 03:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).