New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: isn overpricing totals by 3.7% versus sharp markets, 28 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 1–3. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 27.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
With 28 hours remaining before New York Yankees face Baltimore Orioles (MLB), a totals mispricing has emerged. isn is quoting decimal odds of 2.02, which trades 3.7% above the fair line derived from independent sharp operators — an active market gap, not historical outcome data.
isn's pricing deviates 2.6 standard deviations from the cluster where other books have anchored — a statistical outlier well beyond the noise floor of ordinary trading.
The consensus fair line reflects judgment from 6 independent sharp sources, making it a distributed professional benchmark rather than any single operator's model.
This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our Playbook; the strongest has returned +20.6% ROI on its closed sample.
Record across 767 settled baseball totals bets at comparable odds shows +4.9% cumulative ROI when similar signals have triggered.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not typically persist through first pitch. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment have compressed toward consensus within roughly 20 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 01:29 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).