MLB · Baseball · Aug 18, 2026 20:05 EDT · avg book margin 6.9%

Chicago CubsvsChicago White Sox

Cubs-White Sox totals market shows 2.4% overpricing at one book — 23 hours from first pitch

What happened: Final score: 3–3. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.10 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-7.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 23 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox — full match recap with closing odds

Offered2.10Fair price2.05+2.4% above fair

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 23.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection — 23 hours before Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) — the totals market has fractured across sportsbooks. One operator is quoting a price that sits 2.4% above the fair value independent sharp sources have converged on. The gap is live as of writing; this is active market dislocation, not post-game analysis.

When bookmakers quote this wide apart on the same contract, one side is mispriced. The sharp consensus identifies which.

That fair line draws from 11 independent sharp sources, so the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's model.

Baseball totals in this odds range carry a track record: across 770 settled signals in this segment, cumulative ROI has reached +5.0% when comparable edges have triggered.

Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically survive to first pitch. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment compress toward consensus within roughly 20 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 04:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).