MLB · Baseball · Aug 18, 2026 18:40 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%
Cincinnati RedsvsSt. Louis Cardinals
Reds–Cardinals Asian handicap: Hard Rock overpricing one side by 2.0% versus sharp consensus, 20 hours before first pitch
What happened: Final score: 0–3. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.46 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-11.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 24 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 20 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—20 hours ahead of Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals in MLB—Hard Rock has quoted one side of the Asian handicap at decimal odds of 2.50, pricing it 2.0% above where independent sharp operators have converged. The gap remains active as of writing; it captures a market dislocation, not settled-game analysis.
That overpriced quote sits 2.8 standard deviations beyond the cluster where other bookmakers have anchored—a statistical distance that exceeds ordinary pricing drift.
The consensus fair value derives from 4 separate sharp sources, grounding the benchmark in distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's view.
This signal matches 3 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook; the leading one has returned +31.8% ROI on closed wagers.
Baseball Asian handicap signals at mid-range odds have accumulated +35.4% ROI across 273 settled bets tracked on our board—establishing precedent for how comparable mispricings have resolved.
Pricing dislocations of this magnitude do not persist until first pitch; comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 2 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 01:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).