MLB · Baseball · Aug 18, 2026 18:40 EDT · avg book margin 4.7%
Cleveland GuardiansvsSan Francisco Giants
YouWager moneyline sits 2.8% above sharp pricing with 19 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 8–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 19 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—19 hours before Cleveland Guardians play San Francisco Giants (MLB)—the moneyline market reveals a pricing fracture. YouWager has posted decimal odds of 2.70 on one side, a level that sits 2.8% above where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus fair value. The gap is active at detection; this is market mispricing, not hindsight analysis.
The YouWager quote lands 2.8 standard deviations away from the cluster where competing books have settled—a separation that exceeds routine daily fluctuation and reflects genuine structural disagreement between retail and sharp pricing.
The consensus fair value rests on independent pricing from 4 sharp sources, so the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment rather than relying on any single operator's model.
This signal type matches 2 historically profitable playbook patterns on record—the strongest performer has generated +11.5% ROI on closed wagers.
Track record backs the observation: across 611 settled bets in baseball moneyline at mid-range odds, comparable mispricings have compounded to +14.1% cumulative ROI when edges of this type have triggered.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not survive to first pitch. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically corrected toward consensus within roughly 9 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 01:29 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).