ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 18, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%
Radovan MichalikvsGabriele Crivellaro
Michalik–Crivellaro ITF moneyline: Ladbrokes UK 17.4% mispriced at detection, repriced toward the signal before start
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 667 live signals across 278 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection, the ITF Men moneyline between Radovan Michalik and Gabriele Crivellaro carried a pricing inefficiency: Ladbrokes UK's decimal 1.83 sat 17.4% above the sharp consensus. The board surfaced this gap before the match began, opening a window for bettors to execute at that price.
Match result: 0–2. The flagged side cashed, producing +0.83 units on a flat 1-unit stake.
The metric that matters in portfolios: closing-line value. By the opening bell, the market had shifted +2.7% toward the flagged outcome—systematic repricing that professionals track because single results fluctuate while pricing efficiency compounds across time.
Tennis moneyline detections in this odds range have accumulated +10.2% ROI across 889 settled signals on the board.
Detection runs before the match through the algorithm that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board displays flagged edges while execution remains open, not retroactively after settlement.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
betJACK
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Radovan Michalik vs Gabriele Crivellaro
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 10:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).