MLB · Baseball · Aug 20, 2026 20:10 EDT

Houston AstrosvsLos Angeles Angels

Astros–Angels totals: Hard Rock quoting 3.2% above sharp consensus at 2.11, 13 hours before first pitch

What happened: Final score: 3–18. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.11 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 0 minutes after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at Hard Rock2.11Fair price2.04+3.2% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—13 hours before Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels (MLB)—Hard Rock has priced one side of the totals market at decimal odds of 2.11, a figure sitting 3.2% above where independent sharp operators have converged. The mispricing is measurable and current; the pricing window remains active at this hour.

When bookmaker quotes splinter across a wide range, one side is pricing incorrectly. The outlier sits 5.0 standard deviations from consensus clustering—well beyond the threshold of random fluctuation. This is structural disagreement among pricing sources, not daily chop.

The consensus aggregate draws from 29 independent sharp sources. The fair value behind this edge belongs to distributed professional analysis, not a single book's view.

Two historically profitable patterns from our database align with this signal. The stronger pattern has realized +8.2% ROI when fully settled.

The track record runs long in this segment. Baseball totals at mid-range odds have accumulated +3.6% ROI across 826 settled bets in our historical record when similar signals triggered.

Mispricings of this magnitude do not persist through first pitch. Comparable edges in this exact market segment have typically tightened back toward consensus within about 20 hours of detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 21, 2026 03:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).