MLB · Baseball · Aug 20, 2026 14:10 EDT · avg book margin 4.7%

Kansas City RoyalsvsAthletics

Royals-Athletics Asian handicap at Bodog: 2.8% overpriced versus sharp cluster, 15 hours to first pitch

What happened: Final score: 6–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.65 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 15 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Kansas City Royals vs Athletics — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Bodog2.65Fair price2.58+2.8% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Bodog is quoting decimal odds of 2.65 on one side of the Kansas City Royals vs Athletics Asian handicap, a level that sits 2.8% above where 4 independent sharp sources have converged 15 hours before first pitch. The mispricing is active at detection; this is real-time market disagreement, not analysis after the final out.

The consensus price reflects distributed judgment across 4 independent sharp sources rather than any single operator's model.

This setup matches 2 historically profitable patterns from our archive. The most productive has returned +15.1% ROI on settled bets meeting its conditions.

Baseball Asian handicap signals at mid-range odds carry documented precedent: 107 settled bets in this exact segment have logged +41.5% cumulative ROI when comparable mispricings have appeared.

Mispricings of this width rarely hold through first pitch. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically compressed toward consensus in roughly 7 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Kansas City Royals vs Athletics is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 20, 2026 21:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).