MLB · Baseball · Aug 20, 2026 20:05 EDT · avg book margin 4.6%
Texas RangersvsWashington Nationals
Rangers–Nationals moneyline: isn overpricing one side by 5.2% versus sharp consensus, 8 hours to first pitch
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 8 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 20 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 7.7 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection — 8 hours before Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals (MLB) — the moneyline market splits sharply across bookmakers. One side trades at decimal odds of 2.64 on isn, a price that sits 5.2% above where independent sharp operators have clustered. The mispricing window is open; such edges typically narrow as first pitch approaches.
That outlier quote sits 2.8 standard deviations from the consensus cluster — a statistical tail rather than routine market noise.
The consensus line emerges from 4 independent sharp sources, not from any single book's model or judgment.
This setup triggers 2 historically profitable patterns in the Playbook; the strongest has produced +15.1% ROI on settled positions.
Baseball moneyline bets in this odds range have returned +14.2% ROI across 619 closed trades when comparable signals appeared.
Mispricings of this magnitude rarely hold to game time. Historical data shows that edges in this market segment have typically compressed within about 9 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Texas Rangers vs Washington Nationals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 21, 2026 02:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).