MLB · Baseball · Aug 25, 2026 21:40 EDT · avg book margin 4.8%

Seattle MarinersvsPhiladelphia Phillies

4–1: the 5.1% edge flagged before kickoff cashed — and the closing line confirmed it

Offered at 1xBet1.83Fair price1.74+5.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Before Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) kicked off, our board flagged the totals market: one price sat 5.1% above the sharp consensus at 1xBet, at decimal odds of 1.83. Bettors following the signal took that price while it lasted.

Final score: 4–1. The bet cashed, returning +0.83 units on a flat 1-unit stake.

The part that matters long-run: by kickoff the market had moved toward the flagged side — the price closed +0.3% better than where we caught it (positive closing-line value). CLV is how professionals judge a bet, because results are noisy and closing prices are not.

Signals in this segment — baseball totals, fav-range odds — have returned +5.4% ROI across 59 settled bets on our board.

This page was written by the same engine that flags edges like this every day, before kickoff — not after. The live board shows them while the window is still open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard Rock2.15+0.9%
espn-bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
sport8882.05-3.8%
betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 27, 2026 11:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).