ATP Challenger Tour · Tennis · Sep 15, 2026 10:10 UTC

Matisse BobichonvsEliakim Coulibaly

Totals: play-alberta soft by 6.4% versus sharp consensus, 11 hours to first serve

Offered at play-alberta1.94Fair price1.83+6.4% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 649 live signals across 273 matches, found the same way.

At detection—11 hours before Matisse Bobichon and Eliakim Coulibaly serve in their ATP Challenger Tour match—the totals market has fractured across bookmakers. play-alberta is quoting decimal 1.94 on one outcome, a price 6.4% below where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus fair value. The edge is active market data captured before play begins, not retrospective analysis.

When consensus among sharp operators splits from a single book's pricing, one side is mispriced. The wider the divergence, the likelier the gap reflects structural error rather than routine market variation.

This consensus derives from 41 independent sharp sources, a distributed benchmark that removes any single operator's model from the fair line.

The signal maps to 6 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook, with the most consistent delivering +23.5% on settled bets.

In the tennis totals segment at these odds, comparable signals have returned +14.2% ROI across 126 settled bets tracked on our board.

Mispricings at this magnitude in the totals category typically compress toward fair value in roughly 2 hours from detection—well before first serve.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Matisse Bobichon vs Eliakim Coulibaly is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).