Totals: play-alberta soft by 6.4% versus sharp consensus, 11 hours to first serve
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 649 live signals across 273 matches, found the same way.
At detection—11 hours before Matisse Bobichon and Eliakim Coulibaly serve in their ATP Challenger Tour match—the totals market has fractured across bookmakers. play-alberta is quoting decimal 1.94 on one outcome, a price 6.4% below where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus fair value. The edge is active market data captured before play begins, not retrospective analysis.
When consensus among sharp operators splits from a single book's pricing, one side is mispriced. The wider the divergence, the likelier the gap reflects structural error rather than routine market variation.
This consensus derives from 41 independent sharp sources, a distributed benchmark that removes any single operator's model from the fair line.
The signal maps to 6 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook, with the most consistent delivering +23.5% on settled bets.
In the tennis totals segment at these odds, comparable signals have returned +14.2% ROI across 126 settled bets tracked on our board.
Mispricings at this magnitude in the totals category typically compress toward fair value in roughly 2 hours from detection—well before first serve.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Matisse Bobichon vs Eliakim Coulibaly
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).