WTA Tour · Tennis · Sep 15, 2026 14:40 UTC · avg book margin 6.7%

Matilde JorgevsAnastasia Gasanova

Jorge vs Gasanova: BetUS moneyline quotes 5.5% above sharp consensus, 6 hours from serve

Offered at BetUS3.04Fair price2.88+5.5% above fair

Omenizer detected 13 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+6.4%
Edge vs sharp consensus
94
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Matilde Jorge @ 3.04 — best price at BetUS
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account

The moneyline for Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Gasanova (WTA Tour) shows a fracture across sportsbooks 6 hours before first serve. At detection, BetUS is quoting decimal odds of 3.04 on one side—a price sitting 5.5% above where independent sharp operators have converged on their consensus fair value. The pricing gap remains active market data, not settled hindsight.

The BetUS quote lands 3.2 standard deviations removed from the consensus cluster—a statistical gap that signals structural mispricing rather than ordinary market chatter.

Three independent sharp sources anchor the fair line, so the consensus baseline reflects distributed professional models rather than any single bookmaker's judgment.

This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook. The strongest of those has posted +9.1% on settled bets.

In the tennis moneyline segment at mid-range odds, our ledger tracks +6.2% ROI across 4049 settled bets. Comparable signals in this category have materialized before.

Mispricings in this market segment typically compress before serve. At detection, comparable edges have historically lasted roughly 7 hours before the price corrects toward consensus.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Gasanova is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).