Lilly Sophie Steur vs Esquiva Banuls totals: rizk overprices at 6.1% above sharp consensus, 4 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 11 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
95
Omen Score
+13.0%
Edge vs sharp consensus
35
Confidence
34
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Over 2.5
@ 3.35 — best price at rizk
At detection—4 hours before Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur and Charo Esquiva Banuls take the court on the WTA Tour—the totals market has fractured across sportsbooks. One side of the bet is trading at decimal 3.35 on rizk, a price 6.1% above the consensus fair value derived from independent sharp operators. This is active market data captured before the first serve, not settled hindsight.
The consensus fair line is anchored by 16 independent sharp sources across distributed professional models, rather than reflecting any single bookmaker's judgment.
This pricing gap aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our Playbook, which has generated +8.9% ROI on settled bets.
Mispricings at this scale do not persist through to serve. Comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 2 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Joelle Lilly Sophie Steur vs Charo Esquiva Banuls
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).