Bucsa–Udvardy moneyline at DraftKings: 10.7% overpriced versus sharp consensus, 9 hours at detection
Omenizer detected 56 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
86
Omen Score
+5.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
94
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Panna Udvardy
@ 3.01 — best price at DraftKings
At detection—9 hours before Cristina Bucsa and Panna Udvardy take the court on the WTA Tour—the moneyline has fractured across sportsbooks. DraftKings is quoting decimal odds of 3.05 on one side, a price that sits 10.7% above the fair value established by independent sharp operators. The gap represents active market data, not settled hindsight.
The DraftKings quote lands 2.4 standard deviations away from where the professional consensus has clustered—a distance marking genuine structural mispricing rather than typical market scatter.
The consensus fair line is anchored by 3 independent sharp sources, so the baseline reflects distributed professional models rather than any single bookmaker's judgment.
This divergence aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our Playbook. The strongest of those patterns has posted +9.1% on settled bets.
In the tennis moneyline segment at mid-range odds, our ledger tracks +6.2% ROI across 4051 settled bets. Comparable signals in this category have materialized before.
Mispricings at this scale do not persist through to serve. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours of detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cristina Bucsa vs Panna Udvardy
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).