Luca CastelnuovovsMatthew Dellavedova
Every tracked price on Luca Castelnuovo vs Matthew Dellavedova, against the same margin-free fair line.
| Bookmaker | Side | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| ladbrokes | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.60 | +4.0% |
| Coral | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.60 | +4.0% |
| bwin | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.50 | +1.1% |
| sportsinteraction | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.50 | +1.1% |
| sportingbet | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.50 | +1.1% |
| betnacional | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.45 | -0.4% |
| Neds | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.35 | -3.3% |
| Ladbrokes (Australia) | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.35 | -3.3% |
| polymarket | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.39 | -5.7% |
| betway | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.25 | -6.1% |
| betano | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.38 | -6.2% |
| draftkings | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.24 | -6.4% |
| Dabble (Australia) | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.37 | -6.9% |
| 888sport | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.3% |
| PointsBet (Ontario) | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.3% |
| midnite | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.6% |
| PointsBet (Australia) | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.6% |
| bet99 | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.8% |
| theScore | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.36 | -7.8% |
| betsson | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| rizk | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| betsafe | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| ibet | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| sportzino | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| superbet | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.35 | -8.3% |
| matchbook | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.34 | -8.8% |
| betdeluxe | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.15 | -9.0% |
| surgebet | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.15 | -9.0% |
| betnation-au | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.15 | -9.0% |
| fanduel | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.33 | -9.4% |
| play-alberta | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.33 | -9.6% |
| draftkings | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.32 | -10.1% |
| fanduel | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.10 | -10.5% |
| PointsBet (Australia) | Luca Castelnuovo | 3.10 | -10.5% |
| betdeluxe | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.31 | -11.0% |
| surgebet | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.31 | -11.0% |
| betnation-au | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.31 | -11.0% |
| Neds | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.30 | -11.6% |
| Ladbrokes (Australia) | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.30 | -11.6% |
| betway | Matthew Dellavedova | 1.30 | -11.6% |
No-vig fair odds (margin removed): Luca Castelnuovo 3.46 · Matthew Dellavedova 1.47. How fair prices are made. Step through the devig math.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled match
PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81
Omen Score
Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
| Bookmaker | Odds | Vs fair |
|---|---|---|
| bwin | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportingbet | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| sportsinteraction | 3.10 | +7.2% |
| Superbet | 3.05 | +5.5% |
| SX.bet | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Tailgate Exchange | 3.03 | +4.8% |
| Matchbook | 3.01 | +4.1% |
| Betway | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Casumo | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Unibet | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| Proline | 3.00 | +3.7% |
| betJACK | 3.00 | +3.7% |
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Luca Castelnuovo vs Matthew Dellavedova
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