ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 06, 2026 23:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Brandon NakashimavsTitouan Droguet
Nakashima–Droguet moneyline: bet105 overquotes by 11.9% versus sharp consensus, 14 hours before the match
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-24.5% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 13 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 813 live signals across 368 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.9 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—14 hours before Brandon Nakashima and Titouan Droguet take the court in ATP World Tour play—the moneyline market splits between bet105 and the consensus of independent sharp sources. One side trades at decimal odds of 3.72, a premium of 11.9% above where professionals have anchored their estimate. The pricing rift remains unresolved.
That bet105 quote sits 4.1 standard deviations away from the professional cluster—a statistical outlier that signals substantive disagreement rather than ordinary market noise.
The consensus draws on 3 independent sharp operators, so the theoretical fair value beneath this edge rests on multiple professional estimates rather than a single view.
Our Playbook identifies 7 historical patterns matching this configuration. The strongest has posted +11.8% ROI across its settled record.
In this exact segment—tennis moneyline at mid-range odds—2679 settled bets on our board have returned +8.1% cumulative ROI. Dislocations of this type have paid before.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude have historically compressed in roughly 10 hours as the market drifts toward consensus and the edge narrows.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Brandon Nakashima vs Titouan Droguet
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 07, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).