ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 11, 2026 20:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Daniel Merida AguilarvsLearner Tien
Betano overprices at 7.5% above sharp consensus—moneyline at 3.04, 10 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
73
Omen Score
+8.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Daniel Merida Aguilar
@ 3.00 — best price at Betano
Fits 2 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +11.8% on settled bets
At detection, 10 hours before Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Learner Tien (ATP World Tour), Betano's moneyline quote at decimal odds of 3.04 sits 7.5% above where independent sharp operators have settled. The dislocation is active: the pricing window remains open as this analysis is written.
The Betano quote deviates 3.4 standard deviations from the consensus anchor—a statistical outlier, not routine market scatter.
Three independent sharp sources converge on the consensus, anchoring the fair-value estimate across multiple operator views rather than a single operator's inference.
This configuration matches 2 archived patterns tied to measurable historical returns; the strongest variant realized +11.8% ROI when settled.
Comparable dislocations in tennis moneyline markets—this same odds tier—have delivered +6.9% aggregate ROI across 2788 closed bets in the tracking archive.
Historical precedent suggests pricing errors of this magnitude persist roughly 9 hours from detection before the market corrects toward consensus.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).