ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 10, 2026 16:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.5%
Rafael JodarvsArthur Fils
CampoBet moneyline sits 5.6% above sharp consensus at 2.08, 33 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
The moneyline for Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils (ATP World Tour) shows a measurable split among sportsbooks at detection—33 hours before play begins. CampoBet's decimal odds of 2.08 price one side of the market 5.6% higher than where sharp operators have clustered their consensus. The dislocation remains active, not archived.
CampoBet's quote deviates 3.3 standard deviations from the sharp cluster—enough to signal structural disagreement, not random variation in the odds.
Three independent sharp sources anchor the consensus line in this market, so the theoretical fair value behind the edge does not rest on a single book's judgment.
Our Playbook identifies 7 historical patterns that match this configuration. The highest-performing variant has closed at +12.8% ROI.
Tennis moneyline edges at mid-range decimal odds have a recorded baseline: +7.4% cumulative ROI across 2762 settled bets in this segment tracked on our board.
Dislocations of this size typically tighten before the opening serve—historical data from this market segment shows edges have held for roughly 10 hours before price correction.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils
is on the member board now ·
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).