ITF Women · Tennis · Aug 09, 2026 17:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Giorgia PedonevsAna Sofia Sanchez

Pedone–Sanchez ITF moneyline: 12.1% mispricing at DraftKings repriced +10.1% toward the edge before serve

Offered at DraftKings3.80Fair price3.39+12.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 823 live signals across 369 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, DraftKings quoted Giorgia Pedone vs Ana Sofia Sanchez (ITF Women) moneyline at decimal odds of 3.80 — a 12.1% deviation from sharp consensus. The board flagged the inefficiency while the market remained executable.

The match finished 2–1. The flagged position lost. Single outcomes cluster near coin-flip variance; we document settled bets without outcome filters.

What persists across the sample: between detection and the opening serve, the market drifted toward the flagged side, settling +10.1% better than entry (positive closing-line value). Professionals grade detection on CLV, not results—final scores scatter unpredictably, but repricing during the window does not.

Across 2770 resolved signals in tennis moneyline at this odds tier, aggregate return measures +7.2% ROI.

This analysis was generated before the opening serve by the detection engine that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board timestamps each flag at detection and displays edges only while execution remains open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Giorgia Pedone vs Ana Sofia Sanchez is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 10, 2026 07:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).