ATP World Tour · Tennis · Aug 07, 2026 00:10 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%
Frances TiafoevsArthur Rinderknech
Tiafoe–Rinderknech moneyline: TonyBet quotes 8.8% above sharp consensus at 2.80, 14 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +2.23 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +13.5% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 19 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 14.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—14 hours before Frances Tiafoe meets Arthur Rinderknech on the ATP World Tour—the moneyline market shows a pricing rift between TonyBet and independent sharp sources. One side trades at decimal odds of 2.80, a premium of 8.8% above the professional consensus estimate. The gap remains unresolved.
That consensus draws from 3 independent sharp operators, so the theoretical fair value anchoring this edge reflects multiple professional estimates rather than a single bookmaker's view.
Our Playbook identifies 5 historical patterns matching this exact configuration. The highest-performing variant has realized +10.1% ROI across its settled record.
In this segment—tennis moneyline at mid-range odds—2680 settled bets tracked on our board have accumulated +8.1% cumulative ROI. Dislocations matching this signal have paid before.
Pricing gaps of this magnitude have historically compressed in roughly 10 hours as the market drifts toward consensus and the opening narrows.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Frances Tiafoe vs Arthur Rinderknech
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 07, 2026 02:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).