NFL · American Football · Aug 13, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.7%
Cincinnati BengalsvsDetroit Lions
Bengals–Lions moneyline: FireKeepers quoting 5.5% premium to sharp consensus 48 hours out
What happened: Final score: 16–14. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +6.8% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 98 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 16 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 48 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
FireKeepers is the outlier in the Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions moneyline market at decimal odds of 3.55, running 5.5% above where sharp operators have anchored their consensus. At detection—48 hours before kickoff in this NFL matchup—that gap remains open and exploitable for bettors positioned to act on it.
The FireKeepers quote sits 2.1 standard deviations apart from the cluster where competing sportsbooks have converged—a dislocation that signals real disagreement, not random statistical scatter.
The consensus baseline emerges from 3 independent sharp sources, so the theoretical fair value isn't derived from any single bookmaker's reading.
Our Playbook flags 1 historical pattern matching this setup; the strongest variant in that family has realized +12.5% ROI on settled trades.
The segment of NFL moneylines at these odds levels has generated +10.2% cumulative ROI across 34 settled bets recorded on our board—a baseline that tracks comparable edges when they've closed out.
Prices of this type typically don't persist: comparable dislocations in this market have historically compressed within about 3 days from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 02:23 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).