Patriots–Colts totals: Fanatics quotes 2.5% above sharp consensus with 48 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 13–10. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-19.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 74 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 48 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—48 hours before New England Patriots meet Indianapolis Colts in an NFL matchup—the totals market shows material disagreement among sportsbooks. Fanatics is pricing one side at decimal odds of 2.12, a placement 2.5% higher than the sharp consensus. The pricing gap remains unresolved and actionable for bettors positioned to exploit it at this snapshot.
When bookmakers diverge this sharply, one operator is miscalibrating relative to the field. The consensus view identifies which side carries the edge.
16 independent sharp sources contribute to the consensus anchor, so the theoretical fair value does not depend on any single book's assessment.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 02:54 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).