NFL · American Football · Aug 13, 2026 19:30 EDT

New England PatriotsvsIndianapolis Colts

Patriots-Colts moneyline swung 8 points toward Indianapolis; 1xBet didn't catch up for 106 minutes

8pp window, 106 min42%50%57% market median 1xBet (slowest)

58 hours before kickoff, at 13:15 UTC, something moved the moneyline for New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts across 94+ sportsbooks. The implied win probability for New England Patriots compressed from 56% to 48% in a single hour. Speed like that is never random—it's directional money.

Repricing spread unevenly across the market. Early movers like BC.Game and Bally Bet reacted inside 26 minutes. The typical sportsbook took the same 26 minutes to adjust. Betfair, the laggard among 91 that shifted, required 126 minutes to align.

1xBet trailed longest at 106 minutes, shadowed by play-alberta and FireKeepers each at 86 minutes. Once those windows closed, the picture came into focus: smart bettors had roughly 106 minutes to back Indianapolis Colts at 1xBet's old price while an 8-point gap hung open on the board.

As of detection, three sportsbooks had still not moved from their pre-shift quotes hours after the broader repricing. This is the board's essential signal: when informed money has repositioned the consensus and a book hasn't yet noticed, its outdated price becomes detectable.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).