Patriots-Colts moneyline swung 8 points toward Indianapolis; 1xBet didn't catch up for 106 minutes
58 hours before kickoff, at 13:15 UTC, something moved the moneyline for New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts across 94+ sportsbooks. The implied win probability for New England Patriots compressed from 56% to 48% in a single hour. Speed like that is never random—it's directional money.
Repricing spread unevenly across the market. Early movers like BC.Game and Bally Bet reacted inside 26 minutes. The typical sportsbook took the same 26 minutes to adjust. Betfair, the laggard among 91 that shifted, required 126 minutes to align.
1xBet trailed longest at 106 minutes, shadowed by play-alberta and FireKeepers each at 86 minutes. Once those windows closed, the picture came into focus: smart bettors had roughly 106 minutes to back Indianapolis Colts at 1xBet's old price while an 8-point gap hung open on the board.
As of detection, three sportsbooks had still not moved from their pre-shift quotes hours after the broader repricing. This is the board's essential signal: when informed money has repositioned the consensus and a book hasn't yet noticed, its outdated price becomes detectable.
Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).