NFL · American Football · Aug 13, 2026 19:00 EDT

Pittsburgh SteelersvsGreen Bay Packers

Steelers–Packers totals at Fanatics: 2.2% overpriced versus sharp consensus, 4 hours to kickoff

What happened: Final score: 28–9. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.4% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Fanatics2.04Fair price2.00+2.2% above fair

Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

As of 4 hours before kickoff in the Pittsburgh Steelers versus Green Bay Packers matchup, Fanatics is quoting the totals market at decimal odds of 2.04—a gap of 2.2% above where independent sharp oddsmakers have settled on fair value. The pricing dislocation is measurable and active at the moment of detection.

When bookmakers scatter across the totals market this far, it signals disagreement on where the real edge lies. The sharp consensus identifies which side of that split carries genuine value.

117 independent sharp sources anchor this consensus estimate, so the underlying fair line reflects a distributed opinion rather than any single operator's internal model.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 02:13 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).