NFL · American Football · Aug 14, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.0%
Atlanta FalconsvsDenver Broncos
Falcons–Broncos Asian handicap: PointsBet AU quotes 7.1% soft to sharp consensus, 33 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 7–27. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.00 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +10.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 32.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—33 hours before Atlanta Falcons meet Denver Broncos in the NFL—PointsBet AU's Asian handicap quote sits visibly separated from where professional oddsmakers have anchored fair value. The decimal odds of 2.00 represent a 7.1% undervaluation relative to the sharp consensus. This pricing gap remains live and available to bettors.
The PointsBet AU quote lands 3.3 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—a structural mispricing, not routine volatility.
The consensus itself is built on calibration across 2 independent sharp sources, so the underlying fair value does not anchor to any single book's model.
This exact signal type aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern from our Playbook; the strongest has realized +29.5% on settled bets.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 02:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).