WTA Tour · Tennis · Aug 14, 2026 15:00 UTC

Elisabetta CocciarettovsLucrezia Stefanini

Cocciaretto–Stefanini moneyline at Duel carries 6.3% edge over sharp consensus, 5 hours to first serve

Offered at Duel3.10Fair price2.92+6.3% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 576 live signals across 288 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
NovigLucrezia Stefanini2.94-1.5%
SX BetLucrezia Stefanini2.92-2.2%
duelLucrezia Stefanini2.90-2.9%
FanDuelLucrezia Stefanini2.90-2.9%
bet105Lucrezia Stefanini2.89-3.2%
4CxLucrezia Stefanini2.87-3.9%
OvertimeLucrezia Stefanini2.87-3.9%
Prophet XLucrezia Stefanini2.86-4.2%
Matchbook ExchangeLucrezia Stefanini2.86-4.2%
Prophet XElisabetta Cocciaretto1.50-4.3%
SX BetElisabetta Cocciaretto1.49-4.4%
CoolbetLucrezia Stefanini2.85-4.5%
Betfair Exchange (Australia)Elisabetta Cocciaretto1.49-4.9%
Betfair ExchangeElisabetta Cocciaretto1.49-4.9%
SportsbetLucrezia Stefanini2.83-5.2%
Prime SportsLucrezia Stefanini2.83-5.2%
Dabble (Australia)Elisabetta Cocciaretto1.48-5.2%
duelElisabetta Cocciaretto1.48-5.2%
YouWagerLucrezia Stefanini2.83-5.2%
Hard RockElisabetta Cocciaretto1.48-5.5%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

At detection—5 hours before Elisabetta Cocciaretto takes on Lucrezia Stefanini on the WTA Tour—the moneyline market shows material disagreement across bookmakers. Duel has priced one outcome at decimal odds of 3.10, standing 6.3% above where sharp operators have converged. The pricing gap remains accessible as of this analysis.

Duel's quote sits 3.4 standard deviations removed from the consensus cluster—a structural misalignment between this operator and its peers, not routine market scatter.

Three independent sharp operators anchor the fair-value baseline, so the consensus does not reflect any single book's model alone.

This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns in our archive; the strongest has posted +11.0% on closed bets.

Tennis moneylines in this odds bracket carry documented performance: 2955 settled wagers in this exact segment have generated +6.5% cumulative ROI.

Dislocations of this magnitude tend not to persist: historically, comparable edges in this market have corrected within about 9 hours.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
Betjack3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Lucrezia Stefanini is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).