Stearns–Dart moneyline at CampoBet carries 9.6% edge over sharp consensus, 6 hours to first serve
What happened: Final score: 2–0. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-6.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 16 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 576 live signals across 288 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—6 hours before Peyton Stearns faces Harriet Dart on the WTA Tour—CampoBet has priced the moneyline at decimal odds of 3.40, sitting 9.6% above the sharp consensus. The pricing dislocation remains available to bettors as of this analysis.
CampoBet's quote lands 4.5 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—a structural outlier between this operator and its peers, not routine market scatter.
The consensus baseline is anchored by 3 independent sharp sources, so fair value does not reflect any single book's model alone.
This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns from our Playbook; the strongest has posted +11.0% on settled bets.
Tennis moneylines in this odds bracket carry documented performance: 2955 settled wagers in this exact segment have generated +6.5% cumulative ROI.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not persist passively: comparable edges in this market have typically corrected within about 9 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova
· WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova
@ 3.10
81Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bwin
3.10
+7.2%
Sportingbet
3.10
+7.2%
Sportsinteraction
3.10
+7.2%
Superbet
3.05
+5.5%
Sx.Bet
3.03
+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange
3.03
+4.8%
Matchbook
3.01
+4.1%
Betway
3.00
+3.7%
Casumo
3.00
+3.7%
Unibet
3.00
+3.7%
Proline
3.00
+3.7%
Betjack
3.00
+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.9% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +6.3% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +4.3% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 441 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.0% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+6.3% 🔒
Beat the closing line
39%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.2% to +8.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Peyton Stearns vs Harriet Dart
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 18:51 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).