NFL · American Football · Aug 14, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%
New York JetsvsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Jets-Buccaneers moneyline: theScore off by 3.7% to sharp consensus, 27 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 16–24. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.40 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-27.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 103 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 26.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection — 27 hours before New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) — the moneyline market reveals a split between sportsbooks. theScore is quoting decimal odds of 3.30 on one side, a 3.7% gap above where sharp operators have anchored their consensus. The pricing window remains active at time of writing.
The theScore quote sits 2.5 standard deviations distant from the consensus cluster — a statistical outlier, not everyday market churn.
Three independent sharp sources converge on that consensus fair value, so the reference line behind this edge reflects distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's model.
This pattern has paid out before: NFL moneyline signals in the mid-range odds band have returned +10.2% ROI across 34 settled bets on record.
Historically, mispricings in this market segment have held for roughly 4 days before sharps close the gap, giving the window a defined lifespan.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 02:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).