NFL · American Football · Aug 14, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.8%
Washington CommandersvsMiami Dolphins
Commanders–Dolphins Asian handicap at espn-bet trades 2.5% above sharp consensus, 23 hours from kickoff
What happened: Final score: 20–7. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (+0.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 85 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 23.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—23 hours before Washington Commanders meet Miami Dolphins (NFL)—espn-bet's Asian handicap quote has drifted away from where independent sharp operators have clustered. Decimal odds of 2.05 price one side of the market 2.5% higher than the sharp consensus fair line, opening a detectable edge while the window remains available.
The espn-bet price occupies 2.6 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—structural separation from competing books rather than everyday market noise.
One historically profitable pattern from the Playbook aligns with this signal, carrying a track record of +22.7% ROI on settled bets in comparable market conditions.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 02:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).