3% moneyline edge available at TonyBet while market repriced 98 minutes behind
At detection (14:30 UTC, approximately 98 hours before kickoff), the moneyline for Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers (NFL) underwent a sharp repricing across 98+ sportsbooks. Within a single hour, the market's implied probability for Buffalo Bills shifted from 49% to 54%. Such rapid compression is rarely accidental—it signals informed capital moving through the market.
Adjustment speed fragmented dramatically across the field. Early responders including BC.Game and Bally Bet completed their repricing in roughly 31 minutes. The median sportsbook matched that 31-minute pace. TonyBet, however, lagged furthest among the 91 books that eventually repriced, taking a full 98 minutes to align with the post-move consensus.
TonyBet (98 min), Rushbet (98 min), and play-alberta (98 min) represented the widest lags. Over that 98-minute window, bettors armed with the correct information could have captured Buffalo Bills at TonyBet's stale odds—roughly 3% superior to what the broader market had already accepted, with a 2-point differential visible on the board.
Seven sportsbooks remained frozen at their pre-repricing quotes for hours afterward. This is the board's core function: when consensus-setting speed money has repositioned and a book has not yet shifted, the stale price becomes a measurable inefficiency—the precise signal worth detecting in real time.
Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).