NFL · American Football · Aug 15, 2026 16:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%
New Orleans SaintsvsJacksonville Jaguars
Saints–Jaguars Asian handicap at Fanatics trades 24.6% soft to sharp consensus, 2 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 20–24. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.56 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 2 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 1.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—2 hours before New Orleans Saints and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in the NFL—Fanatics' Asian handicap pricing has separated from where independent sharp operators have anchored their consensus. Decimal odds of 2.56 represent a 24.6% discount to the fair line, leaving an exploitable gap still available as of writing.
The mispricing registers 4.3 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster where competing books have aligned—a structural breach rather than routine market scatter.
Three independent sharp sources converge on the benchmark, grounding the consensus in distributed professional opinion rather than any single operator's model.
The signal matches 1 historically profitable pattern from our archive, with the top variant having yielded +22.2% across its settled bet cohort.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 23:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).