NFL · American Football · Aug 15, 2026 20:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.1%

Seattle SeahawksvsDallas Cowboys

Seahawks 7, Cowboys 17: market mismatch at play-alberta flagged a 7.1% edge that closed with positive value

How it ended, price by price: Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at play-alberta2.38Fair price2.22+7.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The moneyline for Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys (NFL) showed a pricing anomaly at detection: play-alberta quoted decimal 2.38 on one side, a 7.1% divergence from the sharp consensus. Our board surfaced the inefficiency before kickoff, leaving a brief window to execute at that price.

Dallas won 17–7. A 1-unit stake on the flagged outcome returned +1.38 units.

Closing-line value is what separates signal from noise. The market repriced +1.8% in favor of the flagged side between detection and kickoff—evidence that our detection caught genuine mismatch, not luck. Professionals track CLV, not individual results, because it accumulates across many bets while outcomes remain volatile.

American football moneyline signals in this odds range have accumulated +24.1% ROI across 48 settled detections on our board.

Detection runs before kickoff through the same algorithm that identifies mispricings daily. The live board displays flagged edges while execution remains possible, not retroactively after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Seattle Seahawks vs Dallas Cowboys is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 10:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).