MLB · Baseball · Aug 18, 2026 20:05 EDT

Chicago CubsvsChicago White Sox

Cubs–White Sox totals: 5.7% mispricing at detection, market repriced toward the edge before first pitch

How it ended, price by price: Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox — full match recap with closing odds

Offered2.38Fair price2.25+5.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 617 live signals across 260 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the totals market for Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox (MLB) carried a pricing gap: one side sat at decimal 2.38, which was 5.7% above the sharp consensus. The board flagged this inefficiency before the match began, giving bettors a window to execute at that price.

Match outcome: 4–3. The flagged side lost—single games are binary outcomes around the edge, and we report settled bets without filtering for winners.

What matters for portfolio construction: closing-line value. Between detection and first pitch, the market had shifted +6.9% toward the flagged outcome—systematic repricing that professionals measure across time because individual results fluctuate while pricing movement is systematic.

Baseball totals detections at mid-range odds have accumulated +3.6% ROI across 811 settled signals on the board.

Detection runs before kickoff through the algorithm that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board displays flagged edges while execution remains available, not retroactively after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard-Rock-Bet2.15+0.9%
Espn-Bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
Sport8882.05-3.8%
Betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 10:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).