MLB · Baseball · Aug 19, 2026 16:00 EDT

Cleveland GuardiansvsSan Francisco Giants

Crypto.com's 35-minute lag left a ~4% moneyline edge on the board as the market shifted 7 points

+4% window, 35 min54%59%64% market median crypto.com (slowest)

A synchronized repricing swept the Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants moneyline at 02:30 UTC, roughly 18 hours before first pitch. Across 38+ bookmakers, Cleveland Guardians' average implied win probability jumped from 55% to 62% in under an hour—the kind of coordinated move that signals real conviction rather than random fluctuation.

The field fragmented on speed. Early responders like 1xBet and 20Bet shifted their prices within about 35 minutes. Most of the 24 books that repriced clustered near the median at 35 minutes. crypto.com, however, remained anchored to its pre-move price for the full 35-minute window.

Three sportsbooks—crypto.com, Winpot, and underdog-predictions—each required 35 minutes to adjust. For those 35 minutes, informed bettors could take Cleveland Guardians at crypto.com's stale odds with roughly 4% better value than the market consensus, while a 3-point gap persisted across competing quotes.

Hours after the repricing wave completed, 13 bookmakers were still advertising pre-move prices. That's the inefficiency this board captures: once fast capital has repositioned and a slower book remains frozen on old odds, bettors holding that information face exactly the kind of edge worth documenting.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard-Rock-Bet2.15+0.9%
Espn-Bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
Sport8882.05-3.8%
Betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).