MLB · Baseball · Aug 19, 2026 19:40 EDT · avg book margin 6.0%

Kansas City RoyalsvsAthletics

Royals-Athletics Asian handicap: Hard Rock quoted 5.0% soft to the sharp cluster, 13 hours before first pitch

Offered at Hard Rock2.65Fair price2.52+5.0% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 617 live signals across 260 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
NovigAthletics2.50+-0.0%
4CxAthletics2.48-0.8%
FanDuelAthletics2.48-0.8%
YouWagerAthletics2.48-0.8%
CaesarsAthletics2.47-1.2%
William HillAthletics2.47-1.2%
DraftKingsAthletics2.47-1.2%
SharpAthletics2.47-1.2%
SX BetAthletics2.46-1.6%
STN SportsAthletics2.46-1.6%
BoomersAthletics2.45-2.0%
Hard RockAthletics2.45-2.0%
OvertimeAthletics2.45-2.0%
bet105Athletics2.45-2.0%
duelAthletics2.44-2.4%
Prime SportsAthletics2.44-2.4%
BetUSAthletics2.44-2.4%
SX BetKansas City Royals1.66-2.7%
Prophet XAthletics2.43-2.8%
1XBetAthletics2.43-2.8%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

At detection — 13 hours before Kansas City Royals vs Athletics (MLB) — the Asian handicap market has split. Hard Rock's decimal odds of 2.65 on one side sit 5.0% below where independent sharp sources have anchored their consensus fair value. The mispricing is active as of writing; this is live market dislocation, not post-game analysis.

That Hard Rock quote lands 2.4 standard deviations outside the cluster where competing books have settled—a statistical separation that transcends routine daily variance.

Track record backs the signal type. Across 101 settled bets in baseball Asian handicap at mid-range odds, comparable mispricings have accumulated +43.5% cumulative ROI when triggered.

Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically persist to first pitch. Historical patterns in this market segment suggest comparable edges compress toward consensus within roughly 7 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard-Rock-Bet2.15+0.9%
Espn-Bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
Sport8882.05-3.8%
Betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Kansas City Royals vs Athletics is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).