MLB · Baseball · Aug 19, 2026 13:40 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%

Minnesota TwinsvsAtlanta Braves

Twins-Braves Asian handicap shows 3.6% overvalue at FanDuel versus sharp consensus, 7 hours before first pitch

Offered at FanDuel2.62Fair price2.53+3.6% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
99
Omen Score
+1.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
4
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Atlanta Braves @ 2.55 — best price at SportsBetting.ag
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
NovigAtlanta Braves1.96+0.2%
SX BetMinnesota Twins2.04-0.6%
BetOpenlyMinnesota Twins2.04-0.6%
Sportsbetting.agAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
BetOnlineAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
LowVigAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
SX BetAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
BetUSAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
BetAmapolaAtlanta Braves1.94-0.7%
4CxMinnesota Twins2.03-1.1%
NovigMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
DraftKingsAtlanta Braves1.93-1.6%
4CxAtlanta Braves1.93-1.6%
NorthStar BetsMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
Desert DiamondMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
TwinSpiresMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
RushBetMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
SugarHouseMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
Four WindsMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%
BetRiversMinnesota Twins2.02-1.6%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

At detection — 7 hours before Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) — the Asian handicap market has fractured. FanDuel is quoting decimal odds of 2.62 on one side, a price that sits 3.6% above the benchmark sharp sources have converged on. The dislocation is active as of writing; this is market mispricing in real time, not post-game hindsight.

FanDuel's quote lands 2.8 standard deviations away from where the competing cluster of books has settled—a statistical gap that transcends routine daily variance.

The fair-value benchmark rests on consensus from 3 independent sharp sources, so the edge reflects distributed professional analysis rather than one operator's private model.

This signal type has a track record. Across 101 settled bets in baseball Asian handicap at mid-range odds, comparable edges have accumulated +43.5% cumulative ROI when triggered.

Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically persist to first pitch. Historical observation in this market segment suggests comparable edges have compressed toward consensus within roughly 7 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals · MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5 @ 2.15
79 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+4.4%
Entry edge
+0.9%
Edge near close
+0.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.13
Fair price (no-vig)
2.25
Entry odds
Quality
80/100
Confidence
9
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Recreational consensus (no sharp anchor) · priced from: Market reference
Sizing
1.55%
Recommended stake
0.8%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Hard-Rock-Bet2.15+0.9%
Espn-Bet2.10-1.4%
Hard Rock2.10-1.4%
1xBet2.08-2.3%
Matchbook2.08-2.3%
Sport8882.05-3.8%
Betparx1.96-7.9%
Bally Bet1.96-7.9%
BetRivers1.96-7.9%
PMU1.83-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).