ITF Men · Tennis · Aug 18, 2026 11:37 UTC · avg book margin 8.1%

Giacomo CrisostomovsDaniel Lechner

Crisostomo–Lechner ITF moneyline: 13.4% mispricing at Neds repriced toward value before start, result backed the signal

How it ended, price by price: Giacomo Crisostomo vs Daniel Lechner — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Neds1.36Fair price1.20+13.4% above fair

Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the moneyline market for Giacomo Crisostomo vs Daniel Lechner (ITF Men) carried a pricing gap: Neds' decimal 1.36 sat 13.4% above the sharp consensus. The algorithm surfaced this inefficiency before the match, opening a window for bettors to execute at that level.

Match outcome: 2–0 in favor of the flagged side. The bet returned +0.36 units on a flat 1-unit stake.

The metric that matters in portfolio construction: closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market had repriced +8.7% toward the flagged outcome—systematic movement that professionals measure across time because individual results are volatile while pricing efficiency compounds.

Tennis moneyline signals in this odds range have accumulated +10.1% ROI across 900 settled detections on the board.

The algorithm that generated this detection runs before kickoff each day and surfaces mispricings while execution remains available. The live board displays flagged edges during the window, not after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Giacomo Crisostomo vs Daniel Lechner is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 18, 2026 15:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).