ITF Women · Tennis · Aug 19, 2026 02:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Ruien ZhangvsYujin Kim

Zhang–Kim ITF Women moneyline: 5.6% mispricing at Duel repriced toward the signal, result backed the edge

How it ended, price by price: Ruien Zhang vs Yujin Kim — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Duel4.20Fair price3.98+5.6% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 621 live signals across 268 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the ITF Women moneyline between Ruien Zhang and Yujin Kim carried a pricing gap: Duel's decimal 4.20 sat 5.6% above the sharp consensus. The board surfaced this inefficiency before the match, opening a window for bettors to execute at that level.

Match outcome: 1–2 in favor of the flagged side. The bet returned +3.20 units on a flat 1-unit stake.

The metric that matters in portfolio construction: closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market had repriced +5.4% toward the flagged outcome—systematic movement that professionals measure across time because individual results are volatile while pricing efficiency compounds.

Detection runs before the match through the algorithm that surfaces mispricings daily. The live board displays flagged edges while execution remains open, not retroactively after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Kristina Liutova · WTA Tour · Tennis — flagged side Kristina Liutova @ 3.10
81 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+12.0%
Entry edge
+7.2%
Edge near close
+0.8%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.89
Fair price (no-vig)
3.65
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
3.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+9.7%
Shin
+8.4%
Power
+12.0%
Additive
-5.4%
Worst case
+12.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bwin3.10+7.2%
Sportingbet3.10+7.2%
Sportsinteraction3.10+7.2%
Superbet3.05+5.5%
Sx.Bet3.03+4.8%
Tailgate Exchange3.03+4.8%
Matchbook3.01+4.1%
Betway3.00+3.7%
Casumo3.00+3.7%
Unibet3.00+3.7%
Proline3.00+3.7%
betJACK3.00+3.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
35%
Fair win probability
+4.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+7.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 27, 12:51 UTC at 3.65 (+12.0% edge) → fair price at close 3.18 → closing-line value +2.4%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.65 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Ruien Zhang vs Yujin Kim is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 10:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).