NFL · American Football · Aug 20, 2026 20:00 EDT

Houston TexansvsLas Vegas Raiders

A 6-point moneyline gap exposed theScore's 45-minute lag, creating a ~13% edge for bettors who saw the move first

+13% window, 45 min50%55%59% market median theScore (slowest)

Informed money arrived 77 hours before kickoff. At 19:00 UTC, the moneyline for Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) shifted across 89+ bookmakers in under an hour—Houston Texans' average implied win probability jumped from 52% to 58%. Market moves of that speed and scale carry conviction; they are not noise.

Reaction times fractured sharply. Early movers like 4cx and Bodog adjusted within roughly 25 minutes. The middle of the pack required 45 minutes. BetNow, the outlier, took 165 minutes to catch up among the 87 books that repriced.

Three sportsbooks—theScore, partypoker, and ibet—each dragged for 45 minutes before updating. During that span, bettors holding early information could lock Houston Texans at theScore's stale odds with a 6-point gap intact between that quote and the repriced consensus, translating to roughly 13% better value than the market eventually settled on.

Hours after the repricing wave, 2 bookmakers were still displaying pre-move prices. That persistence is instructive: when fast capital has repositioned and a slower book hasn't responded, its outdated line becomes precisely the inefficiency flagged on this board as it emerges.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions · CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions @ 3.10
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+7.0%
Entry edge
+17.6%
Edge near close
2.64
Fair price (no-vig)
3.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.16%
Recommended stake
8.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
1xBet3.10+17.6%
Casumo2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Proline2.65+0.5%
betparx2.65+0.5%
LeoVegas2.65+0.5%
TABtouch2.65+0.5%
Bally Bet2.65+0.5%
BetNation2.65+0.5%
BetRivers2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Unibet2.65+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Houston Texans vs Las Vegas Raiders is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).