Bettors who saw the moneyline market move 9 points had a ~12% edge at TonyBet while it lagged 74 minutes behind
At 14:30 UTC, roughly 105 hours before kickoff, the moneyline market for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers (NFL) moved: across 25+ bookmakers, the average implied chance of Jacksonville Jaguars went from 57% to 66% within an hour. Moves this fast are almost never noise — they are money with an opinion.
The repricing was a race. The first movers — Fanatics Markets, underdog-predictions among them — adjusted within about 54 minutes. The median bookmaker took 74 minutes to follow, and the slowest of the 25 that moved — 1XBet — needed 216 minutes.
The slowest to follow: TonyBet (74 min), Sportzino (74 min), Sportsbet (74 min). That window has closed, so the numbers can be shown in full: bettors with the right information had about 74 minutes to take Jacksonville Jaguars at TonyBet's pre-move price — roughly 12% better than the post-move consensus, while a 7-point gap sat on the board.
Every tracked book eventually followed — but the minutes in between are the whole game: a price that hasn't caught up to the market's fast money is exactly the kind of edge our board flags in real time.
Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).