Colts-Falcons moneyline: 4-point gap persisted for 50 minutes at betwhale, offering ~7% edge as Indianapolis repriced across the market
Sharp action reshaped the Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons moneyline at 00:15 UTC, roughly 113 hours before kickoff. In under an hour, the Colts' average implied win probability surged from 63% to 67% across 96+ bookmakers—a 4-point move of that speed signals conviction, not statistical noise.
Speed fractured across the betting market. BC.Game and Bally Bet were among the fastest, updating within roughly 30 minutes. The median adjustment lag settled near 30 minutes, but the slowest responder—Onyx Odds—required 210 minutes to align with the new consensus.
betwhale lagged longest among the significant shops at 50 minutes, while theScore and partypoker each took 30 minutes. During that 50-minute window, bettors positioned with market intelligence could back the Colts at betwhale's stale odds—approximately 7% better value than the updated consensus, with the 4-point gap still displayed.
Hours after the repricing cascade, 3 bookmakers remained quoting pre-move prices. This is where edges materialize: the gap between the moment smart money repositions and when slower books catch up. A frozen price on the board, visible in real time before settlement, is the precise inefficiency tracked here.
Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).