Dolphins-Giants moneyline: sharp money swung the market 4 points, but William Hill held stale odds for 110 minutes
At 22:15 UTC, with roughly 70 hours until kickoff, the moneyline for Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants (NFL) experienced a coordinated repricing: across 102+ sportsbooks, the implied probability of a Miami Dolphins win fell from 46% to 42% in under an hour. Moves of that speed and magnitude typically signal informed positioning, not random variance.
Adjustment speeds diverged sharply across the market. Early responders like 4cx and 888sport completed their reprices within roughly 30 minutes. The median lag stretched to 30 minutes as well, but the slowest participant — partypoker — took 170 minutes to fully align.
Three sportsbooks trailed most visibly: William Hill and Caesars each remained frozen for 110 minutes, while betwhale held for 70 minutes. Once that window closed, the full edge became visible: for 110 minutes at William Hill, bettors armed with market awareness could back New York Giants at pre-move prices while a 4-point gap still decorated the board.
Two outlets were still displaying pre-move prices many hours into the period. This gap between fast money's repositioning and slow books' adjustment is where inefficiency surfaces: a stale quote visible on the board before settlement is the exact lag detected in real time.
Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions
· CFL · American Football — flagged side BC Lions
@ 3.10
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.4%
Shin
+4.5%
Power
+7.0%
Additive
-7.1%
Worst case
+7.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 4.7σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
1xBet
3.10
+17.6%
Casumo
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Proline
2.65
+0.5%
betparx
2.65
+0.5%
LeoVegas
2.65
+0.5%
TABtouch
2.65
+0.5%
Bally Bet
2.65
+0.5%
BetNation
2.65
+0.5%
BetRivers
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Unibet
2.65
+0.5%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
3.10 odds → 32% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+8.5% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+2.9% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 13, 16:49 UTC at 3.10 (+7.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.64 → closing-line value +9.9%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).