ITF Women · Tennis · Sep 09, 2026 17:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%

Noemi MainesvsAnna Petkovic

Maines over Petkovic at 3.80: 11.7% mispricing at DraftKings settled 2–0, closing-line value affirmed the edge

How it ended, price by price: Noemi Maines vs Anna Petkovic — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at DraftKings3.80Fair price3.40+11.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 658 live signals across 331 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the Noemi Maines vs Anna Petkovic moneyline (ITF Women) contained a pricing gap at DraftKings: decimal odds of 3.80 represented an 11.7% overvalue relative to the sharp consensus. Our algorithm surfaced this inefficiency before kickoff, creating an execution window for bettors at that quote.

Final score favored the flagged side 2–0. A 1-unit flat stake on those odds returned +2.80 units.

Where professionals find validation: closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market repriced +4.0% toward the flagged outcome—that systematic repricing is how edges separate from variance. Single matches are binary noise, but repricing patterns across time reveal genuine information.

Tennis moneyline detections in this odds band have generated +6.6% ROI across 3907 settled signals tracked on the board.

This analysis was generated before kickoff by the algorithm that identifies market inefficiencies daily. The live board surfaces flagged edges during execution windows, not after settlement.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Noemi Maines vs Anna Petkovic is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 10, 2026 17:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).