ITF Men · Tennis · Sep 17, 2026 08:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Samuel Vincent RuggerivsDaniel Domingos

17.5% mispricing closed with +23.2% CLV — market repriced toward the flag before the ITF match started

How it ended, price by price: Samuel Vincent Ruggeri vs Daniel Domingos — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Unibet4.30Fair price3.66+17.5% above fair

Omenizer detected 19 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, hours before Samuel Vincent Ruggeri and Daniel Domingos took the court (ITF Men), Unibet's moneyline quote sat at decimal odds of 4.30 — a price 17.5% above the sharp consensus. The detection system surfaced this gap while the market remained open for execution.

Match result: 2–0. The signal did not land. Single outcomes are inherently random; this page publishes them unfiltered, whether they settle or not.

What validates the flag is closing-line value: between detection and match start, the market repriced +23.2% toward the flagged side. This systematic drift in your direction is what professionals measure, because scorelines are noise and quoted prices reflect market behavior.

Detection runs before the first point, not after the final set. The live board surfaces these mispricings while the window for trading them remains active.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Samuel Vincent Ruggeri vs Daniel Domingos is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 17, 2026 13:29 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).