ITF Women · Tennis · Sep 10, 2026 10:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Francesca GandolfivsEleonora Alvisi

Gandolfi–Alvisi ITF Women: 12.3% moneyline mispricing at Hard Rock repriced toward the winner — closing-line value sealed the edge

How it ended, price by price: Francesca Gandolfi vs Eleonora Alvisi — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Hard Rock2.50Fair price2.23+12.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 5 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, hours before Francesca Gandolfi met Eleonora Alvisi on the ITF Women circuit, the algorithm surfaced a moneyline inefficiency: Hard Rock's decimal odds of 2.50 sat 12.3% above the sharp consensus, presenting a brief execution window at that quote.

Match settled 1–2. The flagged side prevailed. A flat 1-unit stake at 2.50 delivered +1.50 units of return.

What validates the edge is closing-line value, not the scoreline itself. Between detection and kickoff, the market shifted +1.7% toward the flagged outcome—that repricing is what professionals examine, because individual match results are variance and systematic repricing is signal.

Tennis moneyline detections at this odds band have accumulated +6.7% ROI across 3927 settled signals logged on the board since tracking began.

The detection engine that identified this mispricing runs before every kickoff, surfacing pricing gaps while execution windows remain open. The live board displays flagged inefficiencies during that window—not in retrospective analysis after the match concludes.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Francesca Gandolfi vs Eleonora Alvisi is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 12, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).