ATP World Tour · Tennis · Sep 11, 2026 19:00 UTC · avg book margin 2.9%
Alexander ZverevvsKaren Khachanov
Zverev–Khachanov: 15.1% mispricing at SABA Sports repriced before the 3–0 finish—closing-line value validated the edge
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 684 live signals across 273 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Hours before Alexander Zverev and Karen Khachanov played their ATP World Tour match, our detection system identified a moneyline inefficiency: SABA Sports quoted decimal 1.54, which sat 15.1% above the sharp consensus. That pricing gap created a brief window for execution.
Zverev won 3–0. On a flat 1-unit stake at 1.54, the wager returned +0.54 units.
What matters for long-term performance is closing-line value, not the match result itself. The market repriced +6.9% toward the flagged side between detection and kickoff—that systematic movement is what professionals track, because individual scorelines are noise and repricing is signal.
Across 1076 settled tennis moneyline detections in this odds range, the track record stands at +7.5% ROI.
Detection runs before every kickoff, surfacing pricing gaps while execution windows remain open. The live board displays these inefficiencies as they occur—not afterward in retrospective analysis.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Alexander Zverev vs Karen Khachanov
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Sep 13, 2026 13:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).