Maria–Townsend moneyline: Betano overprices at 3.30 decimal, 7.9% soft to sharp consensus with 21 hours to serve
Omenizer detected 17 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+7.3%
Edge vs sharp consensus
94
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Tatjana Maria
@ 3.36 — best price at bet105
At detection—21 hours before Tatjana Maria and Taylor Townsend take the court on the WTA Tour—Betano has priced the moneyline at 3.30 decimal, a level 7.9% above where independent sharp operators have clustered their fair value. The divergence is live market data, not hindsight: the window for this edge remains open as of writing.
That consensus benchmark draws from 3 separate sharp market participants, anchoring the fair line across distributed professional models rather than any single operator's read.
The signal aligns with 2 patterns from our historical Playbook—the strongest among them has returned +10.0% on settled outcomes.
Tennis moneyline mispricings in this odds band have posted +6.6% ROI across 3986 settled bets in our records.
Mispricings at this magnitude typically compress before the opening serve. In this market segment, comparable edges have held for roughly 7 hours from detection before price correction.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Tatjana Maria vs Taylor Townsend
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).