WTA Tour · Tennis · Sep 14, 2026 13:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.6%
Jessica Bouzas ManeirovsDominika Salkova
Bouzas Maneiro–Salkova moneyline: 4cx offers 3.88 decimal, overvaluing at 10.9% versus sharp consensus 19 hours before serve
Omenizer detected 83 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
14
Omen Score
+13.9%
Edge vs sharp consensus
94
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Flagged side: Dominika Salkova
@ 4.00 — best price at Betway
At detection—19 hours ahead of Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Dominika Salkova's WTA Tour match—one sportsbook has diverged sharply from the field on the moneyline. 4cx quotes decimal odds of 3.88, a level 10.9% above where independent sharp operators have clustered their fair value. The data captures an active mispricing before first serve, not a settled outcome.
The 4cx price sits 2.0 standard deviations from the sharp consensus—a statistical gap that marks structural disagreement, not routine market flutter.
Three independent sharp sources anchor the consensus fair value, meaning the benchmark rests on distributed professional models rather than any single operator's read.
Four historically profitable patterns from our Playbook align with this signal. The most reliable among them has averaged +10.0% return on settled outcomes.
The historical ledger for tennis moneyline mispricings in this odds range shows +6.6% ROI tracked across 3986 settled bets.
Mispricings of this size tend to compress before the match starts. Comparable signals in this market category have typically lasted about 7 hours from detection before prices converged.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Dominika Salkova
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).