ITF Women · Tennis · Sep 11, 2026 08:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%

Kristina BelkovavsAstrid Cirotte

Belkova–Cirotte moneyline: Hard Rock mispriced at 1.54, the 8.0% edge repriced toward settlement and cashed 0–2

How it ended, price by price: Kristina Belkova vs Astrid Cirotte — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Hard Rock (Florida)1.54Fair price1.43+8.0% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 658 live signals across 331 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, hours before Kristina Belkova vs Astrid Cirotte (ITF Women) began, our algorithm identified a moneyline inefficiency at Hard Rock (Florida): decimal 1.54 exceeded the sharp consensus by 8.0%, creating a pricing window for execution at that level.

Match outcome: 0–2. The flagged side won. Flat 1-unit stake at 1.54 returned +0.54 units.

Signal strength emerges from closing-line value: the market moved +0.2% toward the flagged side between detection and kickoff. Professionals measure bet quality through CLV across time, not by individual match outcomes—systematic repricing separates edge from variance.

Tennis moneyline detections in this odds tier have compiled +7.7% ROI across 1070 settled signals on the board over time.

This analysis ran before kickoff via the same detection engine that identifies mispricings daily. The live board surfaces flagged edges during execution windows while they remain accessible—not after the match concludes.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Kristina Belkova vs Astrid Cirotte is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Sep 12, 2026 01:44 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).