ITF Men · Tennis · Sep 11, 2026 09:30 UTC · avg book margin 8.3%

Melios EfstathiouvsFabrizio Andaloro

Efstathiou–Andaloro 2–1: A 12.2% moneyline mispricing at Duel repriced toward the outcome and cashed

How it ended, price by price: Melios Efstathiou vs Fabrizio Andaloro — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Duel3.55Fair price3.17+12.2% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 642 live signals across 327 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, hours before the ITF Men match between Melios Efstathiou and Fabrizio Andaloro, our algorithm surfaced a moneyline inefficiency: Duel's decimal price of 3.55 sat 12.2% above the sharp consensus, opening an execution window for bettors willing to act at that quote.

The flagged side won 2–1. On a flat 1-unit stake at 3.55, the bet delivered +2.55 units of return.

The metric that counts: closing-line value. From detection to kickoff, the market shifted +3.5% in the direction of the flagged outcome—that repricing is what professionals examine, because individual match results are variance and systematic repricing is signal.

Tennis moneyline signals at this odds tier have accumulated +6.6% ROI across 3944 settled detections logged on the board over time.

The same detection engine that identified this edge runs before every kickoff, surfacing pricing gaps while execution windows remain open. Analysis is generated in advance—not written after the match concludes.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas · ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.69
90 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+6.0%
Entry edge
+5.1%
Edge near close
+0.5%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.56
Fair price (no-vig)
3.00
Entry odds
Quality
94/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
0.97%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betano2.69+5.1%
bet1052.66+3.9%
SX.bet2.63+2.7%
Matchbook2.63+2.7%
Prophet X2.63+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange2.63+2.7%
STN Sports2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange2.62+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.62+2.3%
4cx2.61+1.9%
Novig2.60+1.6%
Winpot2.60+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Melios Efstathiou vs Fabrizio Andaloro is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Sep 12, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).